Pin Ng

Fulbright Scholar to use math
to figure out tourist trends

Using statistics to predict how vacationers behave could add up to increasing tourism both at home and across the world, according to an associate professor in Northern Arizona University's W.A. Franke College of Business.

Pin Ng, a 2007-08 Fulbright Scholar for lecturing and research at Hong Kong Baptist University, will apply statistical research technique called "quantile regression" for analyzing tourist trends in Hong Kong.

His research will be broken into two parts: studying tourist behaviors in Hong Kong and how "human thermal climates" (how hot or cold a tourist destination is based on the amount of clothing needed to feel comfortable) affect tourist behaviors.

What he learns will help businesses predict how consumers behave so businesses can do a better job at marketing to them.

Quantile regression is a statistical methodology that breaks down statistics into percentiles that offer predications of behavior based on some predictor variables. The research synthesizes the study of consumer and corporate behaviors with human social and geographic factors.

"I will use in-depth applications of quantile regression in the fields of urban economics, regional economics and tourism studies," said Ng, who teaches business statistics, and economics at NAU. "The findings have important implications on the strategic plans of tourist offices, and the research methods will be valuable to tourist towns like Flagstaff."

Ng's research should show how to increase tourism and keep people spending when vacationing. Ng said his findings could influence resource allocation to promote communication programs, support local economic development and cultural values as well as environmental sustainability to enhance visitor experiences.

"Repeat visitors have become increasingly important for mature tourist destinations and attractions such as Hong Kong and the Grand Canyon to maintain a market share, devise management strategies and allocate expenditures," Ng explained. "I will investigate the different aspects of repeat visitation to find out the different spending behaviors of first-time and repeated visitors."

Ng will also work to classify human thermal climates in China.

"Studies of how climate influences human behavior have long been a topic of interest in climatology and other disciplines," Ng explained. "Human thermal climate studies have important implications on human health, migration patterns, retirement decisions, tourism development energy requirements and more."

Ng said that while weather services can provide daily information on temperatures, humidity, wind speed, dew point and more on daily basis, his research will use percentile measures to obtain a more accurate picture of the distribution of temperatures through the amount of clothing needed to make one comfortable. He said this will provide a more complete prediction of what to wear to be comfortable at a certain time in a certain place.

"This will provide tourists with a more complete picture of the distribution of the clothing insulation index variation and help them better plan for the unpleasant surprises during their visits to their destinations," Ng said.

While in Hong Kong, Ng also will teach basic economics principles and mathematical economics.

"I also plan to help develop potential collaborative relationships between the various research centers at Hong Kong Baptist University and NAU," Ng said.